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The October NYMEX contract expired last Monday at the pivotal $3.00 mark exactly to the penny! As the November contract took over, bearish movement pulled the curve down. The new prompt crossed below the $3 mark before rebounding on Friday to close at $3.035, nearly 6% off for the week. The balance of the entire curve was off between three and six percent as well.
Strong production flows and mild weather are keeping the bulls at bay. The only bearish signal was that while the EIA posted a 64 Bcf injection, which was in line with estimates, we are continuing to eat away at the surplus to the five-year average. Now that we are officially entering the autumn season, those warmer temperatures in the forecast now send bearish signals as they will minimize heating demand. Please reach out with any questions.
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September Market Report
The NYMEX rebounded a bit this week with the September contract settling on Thursday at $2.907, a gain of 4.83%. The October contract took over as the prompt and slid a bit on Friday but was still up for the week 2.74% to close Friday at $2.888. The balance of the curve was slightly higher.
Warmer forecasts extending into September along with another lower-than-expected storage injection from the EIA of just 15 Bcf, vs. the low to mid 20's, were the major bullish drivers. Additionally, modest increases in LNG exports coming from the Freeport facility aided as well. Next Monday is Labor Day, so we will not be producing a report. Please reach out with your questions.
August Market Report
Despite heat domes and hot temperatures blanketing most of the U.S., the market slipped lower last week. The August contract expired on Wednesday at $2.725, down 5% in its final three days of trading. The new prompt September contract drifted lower as well, closing Friday at $2.747 with the back of the curve sliding also.
Warm temperatures and cooling demand have been strong, but the need for gas is being offset by strong output from renewables. Additionally, despite a lower-than-expected injection of 28 Bcf reported by the EIA this week, storage levels are in good shape and production levels continue to be at record highs. Additionally, reduced LNG production and exports are adding to the supply surplus. Please reach out with any questions.
July Market Report
The July contract expired on Friday at $3.231, just slightly down from the previous week, but a bumpy ride nonetheless. Similarly, the balance of the curve was slightly lower as well.
To begin the week, there was mixed news on the weather, although a "heat-dome" is emerging over the Central U.S. and moving East slowly as we head into the holiday weekend. Both an increase in the rig counts and a higher-than-expected storage injection led to weakness, as well as some profit-taking heading into expiration. That weakening trend has spilled over into this morning to start out the week. We hope you all enjoy some time off later this week as we celebrate America 250! Thanks for your continued business.